The Autumn Budget – a strong dose of reality

So, realistically, what options did the Chancellor have? We all recognise the need to invest in our public services and infrastructure, most critically the NHS, but the list is long. The only way to do that was to put up taxes, or borrow more, or do both. She went for both.

Business will take the strain over the next few years, through higher employer NI contributions and the increase in the National Living Wage. Inevitably this will need to be recovered either through cost savings, meaning less expenditure or investment, or through price increases. Few will want to do the latter, particularly while demand remains fragile. If prices go up, demand will drop. Growth and diversification will help offset this for some of us, but it is not the case for many businesses. Unfortunately, it is the SMEs that will take the biggest hit.

It was encouraging to see the growth estimates improve for the next two years, although this is on the back of Government spending plans for the NHS, Roads, Infrastructure and Defence. While this is to be welcomed, it would not appear to directly benefit the glass and glazing industry. What does more directly impact our market are the unhelpful estimates on the rate of inflation, which may halt or slow the reduction in interest rates, the opposite of what we need.

Looking for the positives, there is the freeze on fuel duty, and the increase in the National Living Wage will improve consumer confidence and we would hope deliver some positivity for the industry. The investment in energy saving measures, to help in the decarbonisation of homes, is clearly a good thing if it extends to new thermally efficient windows and doors.

Recently at the Glazing Summit, I felt the vibe was positive, with many feeling that 2025 will be better than 2024. Yet again, it seems that the industry needs to hold its nerve to ensure we end 2025 stronger and fitter.